Tulsa Forecast Discussion

815
FXUS64 KTSA 171130
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

 - Low thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon. Locally
   heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible with any stronger
   storms. Severe weather is not expected.

 - Drier and hotter conditions return by this weekend into early
   next week. Heat indices will reach 105-110 F for many areas
   early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Mainly quiet conditions are expected overnight with mostly clear
skies and light southerly winds. With the upper level low across
Texas and the loss of daytime heating, rain chances will mostly
remain below 15% overnight. Low temperatures will mainly be in the
lower 70s.

Afternoon highs Friday will again reach the upper 80s to lower 90s
with heat indices of 95-100. Upper level temperatures and heights
will begin to increase, but a few diurnal showers and storms are
still possible as a shortwave ejects from Texas. Impacts would be
isolated, with locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning being
the main hazards. Any storms will die down after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper level heights will increase Saturday as the ridge begins to
strengthen. High temperatures will nudge up a few degrees into the
low to mid 90s. A couple of very isolated showers or a thunderstorm
cannot totally be ruled out, but the probabilities are mostly 15% or
less.

The story for the remainder of the long term will be the heat. An
intense and sprawling area of high pressure will build across the
region into early next week. Model guidance has been largely
consistent, with a strongly warming thermal profile supporting
high temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s Monday to
Tuesday. With continued moist southerly flow, heat indices will
reach 100-110 F early next week, with heat headlines of some kind
expected. A few ensemble members shift the ridge just enough away
from the area (middle of next week) to keep temperatures a bit
more reasonable and introduce a low chance of rain. However, the
vast majority of guidance points toward a prolonged heat event
that will stretch through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon, but coverage looks to be too
low to include in the TAF`s at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  76  94  77 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   93  75  95  75 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   90  75  93  75 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   89  73  93  75 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   89  72  90  73 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  20
MKO   89  74  91  74 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   90  73  91  74 /  20  20  10  20
F10   89  73  91  74 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   89  74  91  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion