Norman Forecast Discussion

086
FXUS64 KOUN 171112
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
612 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Rain/storm chances through Friday. Locally heavy rain and gusty
  winds possible.

- Warming trend expected over the weekend with triple digit heat
  by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper ridge continues to translate south over the gulf and southeast
today with a closed upper low over southwest Texas. We will see a
couple of minor waves translate northward across the state during
the day today. This will result in another mainly day of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Models are somewhat divided on location
of the activity, but along and near the I-44 corridor may see a bit
more precip than other locations as upper low translates northward
that corridor will reside in an area of upper diffluence.

Otherwise, south winds will pick up in speed some today with surface
high settling over the gulf and pressure falls occurring across the
High Plains, strengthening the surface pressure gradient through the
Plains. Much like yesterday the expected cloud cover and possible
showers/storms will again keep daytime temperatures in check with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Expect to see a majority of the precip dissipate around or just
before sunset with much of the night being dry. However, another
upper wave will move northward overnight and a few showers and
possibly a storm or two may develop toward sunrise across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper high as well as the surface high remain over the northwest
gulf as we go into the weekend, meanwhile closed low to our
southwest opens up and weakens. However, one last weak upper wave
will translate northward across west Texas and western part of
Oklahoma. This may lead to an isolated shower or storm during the
day, but most locations will remain dry Saturday with a breezy south
to southwest winds. Also anticipate Saturday to be the beginning of
a warming trend that will continue into next week. Highs Saturday
afternoon will be back close to normal for mid July in the low to
middle 90s.

Upper ridge becomes reestablished over the central Rockies out into
the central and southern Plains by Sunday. This along with veered
low level flow will bring warmer air out into the Plains from the
west and southwest which will begin to impact temperatures. Although
Sunday temperatures will resemble Saturdays before a more noticeable
rise early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

By late Monday, upper ridge continues to build south through the
Plains with veered low level flow expanding the low level thermal
ridge across much of the central and southern Plains. So, by Monday
afternoon temperatures will rise into the upper 90s and low 100s. By
this time we expect to see some mixing out of the low level
moisture, but still some locations across north central and
southeast Oklahoma may approach heat advisory criteria.

Tuesday, the center of the upper ridge settles directly overhead
with lighter winds as a cold front approaches the northern border by
late in the day. Ahead of the front low level thermal ridge (pre-
frontal torch) is located across Oklahoma. This will result in
likely one of the hottest day of the year so far, with highs ranging
from near 100 to 105 Tuesday afternoon. There will also be
sufficient moisture still in place for afternoon heat indices to be
in the 100-110 degrees range.

The weak front will make its way into at least northern Oklahoma
Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should allow slightly cooler
temperatures across the north. However, central and southern
Oklahoma into north Texas will once again climb above the century
mark Wednesday afternoon.

As go into the latter part of the week, models diverge with regards
to the placement of the upper high, which could be impactful. While
the European keeps the ridge firmly established across the area with
hot and dry conditions continuing. The GFS shifts the high further
west, putting the area on the edge of northwest flow and brings in
slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances back into play.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

MVFR ceilings continue to expand across western north TX into
southern and central OK along with an area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Activity is expected to be most widespread this
morning before becoming more isolated this afternoon with ceiling
also improving over time. South winds will continue through the
day into tonight, becoming gustier for a time late morning into
late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  72  92  73 /  40  20  10   0
Hobart OK         89  70  93  71 /  40  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  71  93  72 /  70  10  10   0
Gage OK           91  69  95  71 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     89  73  93  75 /  20  10  10  20
Durant OK         92  75  94  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...08

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion