510 ABNT20 KNHC 171141TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Eastern Tropical Atlantic:A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave is located about 175 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The low continues to produce a limited and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development of this system is not expected before environmental conditions become even less favorable for development over the weekend.    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.Northeastern Gulf of America and Offshore of the Southeastern U.S.:An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America.  Some gradual development of this system is possible while it meanders over the northeastern Gulf, northern Florida, or the extreme western Atlantic near northeastern Florida early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Brown

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 17 Jul 2026 16:30:05 GMT

000ABPZ20 KNHC 171152TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Johnston Atoll is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms away from the center. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph during the next day or so.  Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development by this weekend.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.Central and Western East Pacific:A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the eastern Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high..90 percent.Eastern and Central East Pacific:A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the south of Mexico during the middle to the end of next week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward across eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP5/EP052026)
  

  ...ELIDA STILL HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of Elida was located near 16.8, -120.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
  

Tropical Storm Elida

• Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 12
  

  Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026 625 
  WTPZ35 KNHC 171437
  TCPEP5
   
  BULLETIN
  Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number  12
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
  800 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026
   
  ...ELIDA STILL HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY...
   
   
  SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
  ----------------------------------------------
  LOCATION...16.8N 120.8W
  ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
  PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
   
   
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS
  --------------------
  There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
   
   
  DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
  ----------------------
  At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was 
  located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 120.8 West. Elida is 
  moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn 
  toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a 
  north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed by 
  Sunday.
   
  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
  gusts.  Some strengthening is possible, and Elida could still 
  become a hurricane within the next day. Weakening is expected 
  to start over the weekend and continue into early next week. 
   
  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
  from the center.
   
  The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
   
   
  HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
  ----------------------
  SURF:  Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
  coast of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These
  swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
  conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
   
   
  NEXT ADVISORY
  -------------
  Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
   
  $$
  Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

  ]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 12
  

  Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026 624 
  WTPZ25 KNHC 171437
  TCMEP5
   
  TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052026
  1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026
   
  TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.8W AT 17/1500Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
   
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
   
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
  50 KT.......  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
  34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 140SW  70NW.
  4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
   
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.8W AT 17/1500Z
  AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W
   
  FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W
  MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
  50 KT... 30NE  60SE   0SW  20NW.
  34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW  90NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W
  MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
  34 KT...120NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W
  MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
  34 KT...120NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 125.6W
  MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
  50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
  34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N 126.6W
  MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
  34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W
  MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
   
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
  ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 30.4N 128.8W...POST-TROPICAL
  MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
   
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 120.8W
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
   
  $$
  FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI

  ]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 12
  

  Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026 000
  WTPZ45 KNHC 171438
  TCDEP5
   
  Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  12
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
  800 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026
  
  Recent satellite observations have shown that Elida's structure has 
  not improved by a significant margin over the past several hours. 
  Dry air is still entraining into the circulation, and the system 
  remains asymmetric with most of the convection located over the 
  eastern half of the circulation. Based on the available data, the 
  intensity of Elida is held at 55 kt.  Tropical-storm-force 
  winds extend well to the east and south of the center. 
  
  Based on recent fixes, Elida's position has been shifted a bit 
  to the north of the previous track with a initial motion estimated 
  at 300/9 kt. A deep-layer trough remains entrenched off the west 
  coast of the United States, which should cause Elida to turn 
  northwestward and then north-northwestward by Sunday. The track 
  guidance continues to shift a bit more to the east, thus the 
  official NHC track forecast has again been nudged in that direction. 
  The models do still have a wide spread of solutions at days 4 
  and 5. 
  
  Elida has a very limited time to strengthen over warm waters and 
  in a low-shear environment. However, if the structure cannot improve 
  quickly, then the chances of the cyclone becoming a hurricane will 
  continue to decrease. The peak intensity has been brought down to 65 
  kt with this advisory. This does keep the intensity forecast in-line 
  with the bulk of the guidance. Weakening should being around 36 
  hours due to Elida moving over cooler waters and into a region of 
  increasing shear. Elida could lose organized deep convection and 
  become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days. 
   
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  17/1500Z 16.8N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
   12H  18/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
   24H  18/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
   36H  19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
   48H  19/1200Z 22.0N 125.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
   60H  20/0000Z 24.1N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
   72H  20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
   96H  21/1200Z 30.4N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  120H  22/1200Z 33.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   
  $$
  Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

  ]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
  

  Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026 000
  FOPZ15 KNHC 171437
  PWSEP5
                                                                      
  TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052026               
  1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026                                            
                                                                      
  AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
  LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
  WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
     ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
     ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
     ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  15N 120W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
   
  20N 125W       34  X  13(13)  67(80)   3(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
  20N 125W       50  X   X( X)  21(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
  20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
   
  25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  23(29)   1(30)   X(30)
  25N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  30N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)
   
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI

  ]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
  

  
  
  
   
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2026 15:22:26 GMT
  ]]>