Amarillo Forecast Discussion

031
FXUS64 KAMA 161758
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Windy conditions continue today with gusts up to 45 mph
  expected.

- Freezing temperatures are likely across most of the combined
  Panhandles Saturday morning. Frost development is also expected
  areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The surface pressure gradient remains tight today as a cold airmass
settles in and cold air continues to push southward. Strong,
northerly flow will keep highs bound to the 50s today. Wind gusts in
some areas this afternoon could get as high as 45 mph, but are more
likely to stay in the 30-40 mph range. Tonight, a surface high moves
across the southern High Plains and will sharply drop wind speeds.
This combined with clear skies will lead to radiational cooling
across the CWA. Freezing temperatures and frost development are
expected as a result. The NBM and HiRes models suggest temperatures
should bottom out in the mid to upper 20s across the north, while
the south will be in the low to mid 30s. High pressure does not stay
settled over the region. Later in the afternoon on Saturday, a
surface low will setup over southeast CO. As a result, wind speeds
will ramp up in our northwest zones. However, the wind direction
will return to southwesterly flow across the whole area. Highs
tomorrow will increase to the upper 50s and 60s, with mid to
upper 60s more likely where winds are strongest in the north.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Long range models are still honing in on the details of our next
impactful upper level system. A deepening trough in the northern
Pacific will eventually transitions south into the western CONUS.
Before then, a weak cutoff low will move into the Plains and aid
in moisture advection and create positive vorticity in our CWA for
the start of the new workweek. Since this first system is weaker
and further west than previous model runs, PoPs Tuesday and
Wednesday are decreasing in the Panhandles and are more focused on
the states to our west. The main system is now not expected to
impact the High Plains until later in the week and into next
weekend. The current NBM and LREF ensemble members show increasing
rain chances Thursday onward, but there are still a lot of
uncertainties regarding QPF. The latest ensemble guidance has
higher chances for 24 hour QPF less than 0.1" and much lower
chances for 24 hour QPF greater than 0.5" for the late week. Of
course, with the highest impacts from this system more likely 7
days out, there still time for the details to become more resolved
concerning this system`s potential.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours at all sites. Strong
winds also prevail at the terminals this afternoon, but they will
become light and variable after sunset. Light winds are expected
through the remainder of the 18Z period.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>014-
     016>018-317.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ015-019-020.

OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion