Amarillo Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS64 KAMA 312338
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Persistent high pressure will remain over the area, leading to
  continued above average temperatures. Afternoon highs will
  reach 105 degrees in some locations this week.

- Very low (20 percent or less) precipitation chances will linger
  for mainly the northwest combined Panhandles through midweek,
  but otherwise dry conditions will prevail for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

High pressure continues to remain displaced off to the east over the
Mississippi Valley, but is very broad in size.  Unfortunately this
will lead to mostly dry conditions despite ample moisture on the
back side of the high managing to track into the NM area.  There is
a low chance ~15% that we get some moisture right along our state
line, and into Cimarron County this evening for a shower or storm to
occur but further east is not very likely.  We will still take into
account that residual low level moisture from last weeks storms may
lead to an isolated storm managing to occur just about anywhere, but
that really is only a 5% chance and not worthy of mention in the
forecast itself.  That being said there is some Cu development over
the Palo Duro Canyon area, but there does seem to be a pretty
substantial cap in place that would take a lot to erode. So
confidence still not high that we will manage to get storms out of
these.  Temperatures will once again approach 100 in several areas
this afternoon, and while tomorrow should have similar highs as the
ridge shifts further east, and that should increase the cloud cover
chances just a bit to the central and western Panhandles which could
support slightly lower highs on Tuesday.  Like today, there`s a low
chance that a shower or storm tracks along the TX/NM border or makes
its way in to the western Panhandle in the afternoon.  Given the
heat and continued drying trend, we should continue to remain
vigilant about elevated fire conditions, and that fires can still
easily spark with these dry grasses, despite the overall weather
conditions not being ideal for critical Fire Weather.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The ridge will stay off to the east Wednesday through Friday before
gradually shifting west again.  This will keep that dome of dry air
mostly over our area, but could open the door for an isolated storm
or two to occur over the western Panhandles. Pops are still on the
lighter side, but will not be completely ruled out.  Southwest flow
over the Panhandles on Thursday may have a little impulse that moves
across the area, and it could trigger a little better chance at
storms, and another area to watch will be if there is remnance of
what is currently known as tropical cyclone five over the Gulf south
of Louisiana.  That cyclone could approach close enough to possibly
provide a little more moisture that might lead to better storm
chances, but still at this time chances are not looking very good.
As that high start to shift further west on Saturday and Sunday, it
looks like we could be back in the widespread 100`s for the
Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain between 10 to 15 kts through this evening before weakening
overnight. Expect winds to re-strengthen during the day tomorrow
between 10 to 15 kts with gusts upwards of 25 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion