Dallas Forecast Discussion

637
FXUS64 KFWD 161833
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong post-frontal winds with gusts up to 50 mph are expected
  through this evening.

- Cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend with
  highs in the 60s and lows mainly in the 40s.

- Quiet conditions continue through Thursday, with temperatures
  warming back towards seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Skies continue to scatter out from the northwest early this
afternoon as the drier continental airmass pushes into the region.
Some upper-level clouds with origins from the Sierra Madre will
persist within southwesterly flow aloft as a cutoff low
retrogrades through Baja California. Elsewhere across the country,
an amplifying shortwave currently positioned over the Great Lakes
will progress southeast through the eastern CONUS while ridging
builds in its wake. At the surface locally, the cold front has
cleared the southeastern counties of the CWA, with a strong cold-
core high over the High Plains sending cool dry air through North
and Central Texas.

The primary weather story today is the gusty winds. 1700Z RAP
objective analysis depicts a closed 1042mb contour at the center of
the surface high which is progged to expand southeast through the
afternoon. The tightened post-frontal pressure gradient will result
in sustained 30mph winds, gusting to 50mph at times as diurnal
mixing deepens the boundary layer to ~850mb and transports some of
that 850 momentum down to the surface. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect through 7pm this evening. Breezy conditions will continue
through the first half of the night until the high makes enough
southeastward progress to relax the pressure gradient locally.

Continued low-level CAA will offset a good portion of today`s
diabatic heating, resulting in highs in the 60s area-wide. While
winds up to 20mph will linger through the overnight hours, clearing
skies amidst dry conditions will allow for efficient radiational
cooling. Lows tonight will be the coolest we`ve seen since late
April, dropping into the 40s.

High pressure through the column will continue to move east, with
North and Central Texas positioned beneath through Sunday (and
beyond). The accompanying continental airmass will remain, with
tomorrow`s highs peaking in the 60s and Sunday`s highs approaching
70F. Lows will mimic that of tonight, though a few locations west
of U.S. 281 may see temperatures drop into the upper-30s Saturday
night. Northerly winds on Saturday will become easterly on Sunday
(speeds around 10mph) as the primary surface high builds upstream
of the mid/upper shortwave departing through the Eastern
Seaboard. Skies will be mostly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Current indications amongst the global guidance are that a subtly
progressive omega block will gradually develop through the workweek,
with the flanking lows straddling the contiguous U.S. as the eastern
CONUS shortwave cuts off from the primary branch of the polar jet
and an incoming trough amplifies off the West Coast. Central CONUS
ridging will remain established through the period, resulting in dry
conditions and mostly clear skies amongst associated synoptic
subsidence. Temperatures will steadily climb towards the mid-80s by
Thursday as the post-frontal airmass modifies and ESE surface flow
returns. With the recent cold frontal intrusion well into the Gulf,
moisture return will be limited, compounded by return trajectories
taking the modest dewpoints west of the area later in the week.
"High and dry" is the colloquial phrase being said around the
office.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Strong north winds continue at all terminals, with observed gusts of
35 kts common across the region. Speeds will begin to diminish this
evening, with gust spreads relaxing to AOB 10 kts by around 00Z.

VFR looks to prevail through the period. A few low clouds may try to
move into the D10 airspace from the north tonight, however sporadic
coverage precludes TAF inclusion at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  65  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                48  66  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               45  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              45  63  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            45  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              48  66  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             47  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              48  68  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       43  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dornsife
LONG TERM....Dornsife
AVIATION...Dornsife

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion