Norman Forecast Discussion

999
FXUS64 KOUN 010338
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1038 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Hot and dry conditions to continue.

- Fire weather will continue to be a concern with the ongoing
  drought and dry fuels.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

While today will be a degree or two cooler than prior days, we`ll
still be upwards of 10-15 degrees above normal (upper-90s to
mid-100s deg F) for the last day of August. A relatively drier
airmass will also help keep heat indices below the 105 deg F
threshold for a Heat Advisory across most areas this afternoon.

A south-southwesterly surface wind will be less gusty through
sunset compared to yesterday/Sunday, as the gradient in surface
pressure relaxes. However, as mentioned for the last several
updates, given how critically dry fire fuels are across the
region, even more muted combinations of fire weather factors (RH
~20% & wind gusts 105 deg F heat
indices, especially across eastern portions of the area. Several
small/brief rain cores may emerge across southeastern Oklahoma on
Tuesday afternoon, though any rainfall amounts will be very light to
nil.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue, most especially
across portions of western Oklahoma where lowest afternoon
humidity is forecast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, currently off the coast of southern
Louisiana, is progged to continue modest strengthening while
approaching the Texas/Louisiana coastal border over the coming 18-24
hours. A strong consensus of guidance shows this feature drifting
northwestward and weakening into the midweek, though some potential
for clouds and perhaps scattered precipitation exists across the
eastern Red River Valley by Wednesday evening.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

As noted in the short term section above, the remnants of the
tropical disturbance will be feature that could bring a chance of
showers/storms across parts of the area with some deterministic
models and ensemble members keeping a remnant vorticity
maxima/weakness in the area through Friday. However, it is
important to note that other ensemble members completely dissipate
the system before it reaches Oklahoma or western north Texas.

Otherwise, hot weather will likely continue into next weekend
with deterministic and ensemble NWP in agreement the subtropical
ridge will continue to influence our weather. As a matter of fact,
there are indications the subtropical ridge may further
amplify/strengthen across the Plains by the upcoming weekend.

The probabilistic National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast does
not have any significant spread among the 10th and 90th percentile
temperature forecast with even the 10th percentile several
degrees above-normal through the Labor Day weekend. As a result,
there is a high confidence of generally above-normal temperatures
outside of any potential tropical influence. Note that given the
lower sun angle and shorter days, our normal temperatures have
been quickly decreasing over the last couple weeks. For example,
Oklahoma City is down to 89 deg F and Wichita Falls is down to 93
deg F today. Therefore, even a slight cool down would still result
in above-normal temperatures.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. South/southeast
winds will veer slightly and become gustier from mid morning Tuesday
through the late afternoon period before gusts subside around
sunset. Widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon
across southern/southeastern OK, but chances are much too low to
include in the TAF at this time (

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion