Tropical Cyclone Activity
Tropical Sea Temperatures
Atlantic Satellite Loop
Gulf of Mexico
Eastern Pacific
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000ABNT20 KNHC 312350TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located over the northern Gulf of America.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.$$Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Tropical
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Summary for Tropical Storm Edouard (AT5/AL052026)
...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ON TUESDAY... ...A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 the center of Edouard was located near 28.6, -91.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Edouard
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Tropical Storm Edouard Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010252 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 ...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ON TUESDAY... ...A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 91.8W ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from High Island to Cameron Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * High Island to the Cameron Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 91.8 West. Edouard is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Edouard is predicted to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area on Tuesday and move inland over southeast Texas on Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely and Edouard could approach hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf coast on Tuesday. Rapid weakening is expected after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data form an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Edouard can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area by Tuesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... High Island, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...3-5 ft Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Edouard is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals up to 9 inches for parts of the Upper Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas, with potential for 2 to 3 inches in far southwest Louisiana. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, especially in low-lying and urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with TS Edouard, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ero. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010252 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 91.8W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 91.8W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 91.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 29.2N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.1N 94.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010253 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Satellite and radar data showed an increase in banding near the center of the small tropical cyclone during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates increased to around 35-40 kt, and the initial wind speed was therefore increased to 35 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. Since that time, there has been a pause in the organization of the system, but curved bands are noted over the northern and western portions of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been sampling the system this evening reported earlier that the pressure has fallen to around 1004 mb, which is quite a bit lower than from this afternoon's mission, though the last fix was up a millibar or two. The flight-level winds do not appear to have responded to the pressure drop yet, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Edouard will be moving over very warm waters of the northwestern Gulf within a low shear and a sufficiently moist environment tonight and Tuesday morning. As a result, nearly all of the dynamical models indicate that the system will strengthen on its approach to the coast, with most showing much of the strengthening occuring in the final hours before landfall. Given that the system is small, a period of quick organization and strengthening seems likely Tuesday morning. The NHC forecast calls for intensification during the next 12 hours and additional strengthening could result in Edouard nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the coast on Tuesday. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for a portion of the northwest Gulf coast with this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Note that since the peak intensity is expected to occur at landfall (between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points), it is not possible to explicitly reflect Edouard's peak intensity in the forecast points below. Edouard is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest to northwest during the next couple of days. This motion should bring the center onshore along the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday and inland over eastern Texas Tuesday night. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous track. Key Messages: 1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to Cameron. 2. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coast within the warning area. 3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 28.6N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 29.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 30.1N 94.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 000 FONT15 KNHC 010252 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LAKE CHARLES 34 2 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CAMERON LA 34 21 41(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) CAMERON LA 50 3 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) JASPER TX 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 33(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GALVESTON TX 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 20(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BROWN]]> -
Tropical Storm Edouard Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 03:21:28 GMT ]]> -
Tropical Storm Edouard Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 03:55:20 GMT ]]> -
Tropical Storm Edouard Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 02:54:05 GMT ]]>
Local Statement for Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued at 1020 PM CDT
Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA
Issued at 1031 PM CDT
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000ABPZ20 KNHC 312312TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Karina, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are continuing to become better organized. The environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later tonight or by early tomorrow morning as the system moves northwestward around 10 mph. For more information, including storm warnings, please see High Seas forecast issued by National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.Central Pacific:An area of showers and thunderstorms are located well south or southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Development of this system is becoming less likely as it drifts slowly westward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Servicecan be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$Forecaster Evans/Kelly
Hurricane for
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Summary for Hurricane Karina (EP1/EP112026)
...KARINA HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Aug 31 the center of Karina was located near 17.8, -126.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Karina
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Hurricane Karina Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026 ...KARINA HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 126.6W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 126.6 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the forecast period. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible through tonight, followed by a gradual weakening trend on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Evans/Kelly
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Hurricane Karina Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010232 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.6W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.6W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 126.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 128.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.5N 130.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 137.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 144.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY
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Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010234 TCDEP1 Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026 Latest visible and infrared satellite imagery show little change in Karina's structure over the last several hours. The 00z subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB showed an increase to T5.5/102 kt, while objective UW-CIMSS estimates range from 110 to 115 kt. Given the steady trend of Karina's appearance on satellite, the initial intensity estimate was held at 115 kt. Karina's initial motion is estimated to be 285/8 kt, the same as the previous advisory. The storm is expected to continue a west-northwestward motion through the forecast period, guided by mid-level ridging centered to the northwest over the north central Pacific. Other than a slight shift northward, little was changed in the track forecast, which reflects a blend of the previous advisory, HCCA, and GDMI. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which remains slightly higher than the model consensus. SHIPS guidance suggests that Karina will remain in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, and over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Beyond Day 3, the system will begin to encounter cooler SSTs and a drier mid-level environment. Thus, the latest forecast continues to reflects a more steady weakening trend at that time, near the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.8N 126.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.2N 128.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 18.5N 130.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 137.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 22.3N 144.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Evans/Kelly
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Hurricane Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 294 FOPZ11 KNHC 010233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X 37(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 130W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 32(89) 1(90) X(90) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 39(63) 1(64) X(64) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 45(69) 1(70) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) X(37) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 25N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY]]> -
Hurricane Karina Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 03:27:04 GMT ]]>