Tropical Cyclone Activity
Tropical Sea Temperatures
Atlantic Satellite Loop
Gulf of Mexico
Eastern Pacific
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000ABNT20 KNHC 161733TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Beven
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:28:40 GMT
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
260 ABPZ20 KNHC 161721TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Trudy, located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.South of Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.$$Forecaster Adams
Hurricane for
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Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026)
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT TRUDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Oct 16 the center of Trudy was located near 14.8, -102.5 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Trudy
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Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT TRUDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 102.5W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue monitor the progress of Trudy. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 102.5 West. Trudy is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions spreading across the area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by late tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by late Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 15 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inch with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast in Guerrero and Nayarit. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162040 TCMEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 102.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 103.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 104.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 105.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.9N 107.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.5N 108.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.1N 109.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 102.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162041 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 After the last advisory was issued, the eye of Trudy disappeared and WFSM microwave data indicated that the central convective structure had decayed. In addition, a synthetic aperture radar overpass near 12Z showed maximum winds of around 80 kt. When an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reached the storm between 18-19Z, it found a central pressure near 982 mb and maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 76 kt. Based on this and satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been reduced to 75 kt. The reasons for this weakening are speculative, but it one possibility is that the slow-moving hurricane has upwelled cold water underneath it as it crossed the paths of Polo and Rachel. The initial motion is a somewhat erratic 330/4 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is likely during the next 12 hours or so as a weak low-level to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This motion should continue through about 60 hours, with the center passing near or possibly over the coast of west-central Mexico at about the 48-hour point. After that time, a weakening Trudy should be steered more by low-level flow, which should steer it generally west-northwestward. The new forecast track is near or just to the west of the previous track, and it lies a little to the right of the center of the guidance envelope. Trudy's forecast track takes it into an area of deeper warm water, which in theory could cause the hurricane to re-intensify during the next 24 h or so. However, there still may be a tongue of dry air wrapping around the central core, and as the cyclone gets close to the coast of Mexico land interaction becomes a negative factor. Some of the guidance shows a little re-intensification, while some of it shows continued weakening. This part of the intensity forecast will include modest intensification during the first 24 h. After 48 h, Trudy should encounter strong shear and a dry air mass, and this combination should produce steady weakening. The global models that keep the center offshore forecast the system to stop producing convection between 96-120 h, and the intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low at that time. The new intensity forecast has major reductions in intensity compared to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While Trudy is no longer forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, it will still bring an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, as well as Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.8N 102.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 15.5N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.9N 104.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 19.7N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 20.5N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 20.9N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 21.5N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 22.1N 109.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162041 PWSEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 23(47) 1(48) X(48) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) X(30) X(30) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 57(58) 14(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 13(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 10(10) 73(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 29(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN]]> -
Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory Update Number
Issued at 1235 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 000 WTPZ61 KNHC 161834 TCUEP1 Hurricane Trudy Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 1235 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A MUCH WEAKER TRUDY... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Trudy has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (135 km/h). This intensity change will be reflected in the next advisory issued at 3 PM CST...2100 UTC. SUMMARY OF 1235 PM CST...1835 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 102.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Trudy Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:28:22 GMT ]]>
Summary for Remnants of Simon (EP5/EP202026)
...SIMON DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Oct 16 the center of Simon was located near 21.5, -110.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Remnants of Simon Public Advisory Number 38
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 162034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Remnants Of Simon Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 ...SIMON DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 110.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Simon were located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 110.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the remnants of Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by the remnants of Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Simon please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Adams
Remnants of Simon Forecast Advisory Number 38
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 162034 TCMEP5 REMNANTS OF SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 110.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF SIMON PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ADAMS
Remnants of Simon Forecast Discussion Number 38
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 569 WTPZ45 KNHC 162035 TCDEP5 Remnants Of Simon Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 Convection associated with Simon has rapidly diminished today. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that Simon no longer has a well-defined low-level center, and as a result, no longer meets the criteria for classification as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Simon. The initial intensity is estimated at 30 kt. The remnants are expected to move northwestward today, steered by the low- and mid-level flow between a trough to the west and a mid-level ridge to the northeast. This motion should keep the remnants moving parallel to the coast of Baja California Sur. Dissipation is expected by late tonight or early tomorrow morning. For additional information on the remnants of Simon please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF SIMON 12H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams
Remnants of Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 162035
PWSEP5
REMNANTS OF SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF SIMON WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...
35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
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LOCATION KT
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FORECASTER ADAMS
Remnants of Simon Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:22:39 GMT