Tulsa Forecast Discussion

189
FXUS64 KTSA 312328
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

 - An extended period of hot and dry weather will persist through
   the next week. Heat headlines are expected at times.

 - Rain chances look very low through the forecast period.

 - The ongoing drought situation will continue to worsen.
   Localized fire weather concerns will develop each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Hot conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening
across the entire forecast area. Afternoon highs will again reach
the upper 90s to low 100s. Due to ongoing drought conditions, dew
points will remain depressed, mostly in the low to mid 60s.
Afternoon heat indices will reach 105-107 F within the Heat Advisory
across northeast OK and west-central AR. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies and breezy southerly winds will persist.

Tonight will be mild and quiet with light southerly wind and mostly
clear conditions. Low temperatures will be similar to last night,
and mainly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The pattern will remain stagnant over the next week with a sprawling
and strong upper level high either overhead or nearby. Temperatures
will remain consistent, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s each
day and lows mostly in the 70s. Dew points will remain in the low to
mid 60s through Tuesday, so even though temperatures will be hot,
heat indices will only run slightly higher than the temperatures.
This will continue to keep heat products confined to the typically
hotter locations. For Tuesday, the Heat Advisory will span the lower
elevations of northeast OK and west-central AR.

By Wednesday and onwards, the low level flow will become more
southeasterly and strengthen slightly as a weak decaying tropical
system moves into Texas, which will help low level moisture creep
upwards. The chance for rain is essentially zero through the work
week for most locations. The one exception will be parts of
southeast OK on Thursday, as the remnants of the tropical system
graze southeast OK, bringing a 10-15% chance of a few showers.

A similar 5-10% chance of diurnal showers is possible for the
higher terrain of northwest AR next weekend as the upper level
flow becomes northwesterly. In any case, meaningful precipitation
remains extremely unlikely for now. With continued hot, dry, and
breezy weather, some fire weather potential will exist each
afternoon throughout the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75 103  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74 102  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   75 100  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   74 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   75  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74 100  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  98  75  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ055-056-
     060>062-067-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion