Tulsa Forecast Discussion

029
FXUS64 KTSA 161724
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

 - Gusty north winds continue Friday. A Wind Advisory is in
   effect for the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK.

 - Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across far SE OK
   this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity, gusty
   winds and lack of rainfall in this area.

 - Temperatures drop enough both Friday and Saturday nights to
   support frost development across portions of NE OK and NW AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Breezy and much cooler conditions are ongoing in the wake of last
night/s cold frontal passage. A few northerly wind gusts around 40
mph have been observed late this morning in far southeast
Oklahoma, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range across much of the
rest of eastern Oklahoma. The very dry low levels will combine
with the strong and gusty winds to lead to elevated fire weather
concerns in far southeast Oklahoma where very little, if any,
rainfall occurred in the last few days. A Fire Danger Statement
was issued by an earlier shift through early evening and remains
valid. Gust magnitude remains expected to decrease, albeit slowly,
through the afternoon and the existing Wind Advisory will be
allowed to expire on time at 1 pm. Wraparound cloudiness is
increasing late this morning, particularly in areas north of I-40,
as the main upper level trough swings through the region. This
cloudiness should stick around through the afternoon and possibly
into part of the evening and overnight in parts of northwest
Arkansas.

The main issue tonight is the potential for areas of frost,
especially in locations north and west of I-44 in northeast
Oklahoma. Wind speeds drop substantially overnight with the
approach of surface high pressure, allowing temperatures to drop
into the mid 30s. Highest confidence in frost development is in
parts of Osage, Pawnee and Washington counties, and a Frost
Advisory will be issued for these areas for Saturday morning.
Potential for more patchy frost will extend farther east along the
Kansas border, but confidence is not high enough in the areal
extent to issue an advisory that far east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A low impact forecast will exist for much of the extended
forecast. Saturday is shaping up to be absolutely fantastic for
those who favor light winds, seasonably cool temperatures, low
humidity and plenty of sun. Despite continued low afternoon
humidities, the lighter winds will lead to improved fire weather
conditions for southeast Oklahoma, and an additional Fire Danger
Statement appears unnecessary. Additional frost development should
occur Saturday night into Sunday morning across northern parts of
the forecast area, with overnight lows being close to those
expected tonight. Another Frost Advisory may be warranted.

Southerly winds make a return to the area on Sunday, which will
lead to warmer afternoon temperatures. Upper level ridging builds
into the Central United States by early next week and persists
through much of the upcoming week. This will keep warmer
temperatures across the region, with near to above normal highs
returning as early as Monday and certainly by Tuesday. The next
chance of rain looks to accompany another strong storm system that
makes its way eastward toward the area late in the week and into
the next weekend. Low rain chances will return ahead of this
feature possibly as early as Thursday-Friday, but with a trend
toward a more delayed arrival, more likely over the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR cloud deck across northern TAF sites will gradually erode in
Oklahoma this afternoon with VFR broken clouds forecast to remain
across northwest AR terminals through 10Z. Gusty north winds in
the 20-30kt range will continue through sunset before weakening to
at or below 10kt overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  60  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   44  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   42  64  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   35  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   37  64  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  62  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   40  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   38  60  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
F10   40  61  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   44  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053-376.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ055-059-154-
     254-354.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ011-119-120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...24

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion