000
FXUS64 KOUN 052310
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.AVIATION...
WIND WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS SFC
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER WAVE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUFFICIENTLY LOWER-LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD FROZEN
OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS
OF OUR CWA AND WEST ONTO THE CAPROCK. ALL MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS WITH THE WRF/NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
/WHICH APPEARS TYPICALLY WAY OVERDONE/. OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR ADEQUATE
THERMAL PROFILES DURING THE 6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SUFFICIENT DEEP
ASCENT. RESULT WILL BE KEEPING ALL SNOW WORDING CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MANY AREAS ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SEE THE SNOWFALL TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
INTO OUR NORTHERN TEXAS COUNTIES...ANY PRECIP SEEN TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LIGHT RAIN.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FORECAST FOR MID-LATE WEEK. DID NOT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS AND WILL LEAVE LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NRN TEXAS FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY. MODEL
TREND IS TO KEEP MOST OF LATE WEEK PRECIP SOUTH OF RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT WILL GIVE NEXT SHIFT A PERUSAL OF DATA BEFORE REMOVING
CHANCES COMPLETELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  36  48 /   0   0  10  30
HOBART OK         25  53  36  45 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  53  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           20  53  29  39 /   0   0  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     23  53  29  42 /   0   0  10  30
DURANT OK         33  54  39  56 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion